Rabbit Rules - Drafting My 2009 Teams

I think it’s fair to say that the core of a fantasy football team is determined in the first six rounds of the draft. Once those top 60+ guys are gone, it becomes more of a crapshoot - finding the right role players to get production from fringe positions and spotting the backups most likely to contribute.

There are two nasty temptations in the early rounds of the draft: the top rock stars who play QB and TE. Take one and you’ve got an every-week stud on your hands - which is great. But take one of each and you risk being seriously deficient in the key WR/RB skill positions. So I have a rule of thumb when drafting:

Rabbit Rule #1
At least 5 of your first 6 picks (if not all of them!) should be RBs and WRs.

If you’ve got to have a Brady/Brees/Manning, that’s fine. But accept the fact that you’ll be settling for a tier-two TE in the bargain. Embrace it! OTOH, if your opponents are busy snapping up the top QBs, that means that a better quality of W/R will be falling to you. If you have your eye on a Gates/Witten/Gonzo, give him a firm draft slot and, if he falls to you, snatch him up without hesitation.

So let’s take a look at the top 6 picks that form the core of my 2009 teams.

League One – 14 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Postion: #5
5. Steven Jackson RB1
24. Calvin Johnson WR1
33. Ryan Grant RB2
52. Jay Cutler QB
61. Brandon Marshall WR2
80. Greg Olsen TE

I’m pretty happy with this team. Yes, it appears I disobeyed Rabbit Rule #1, taking both a QB and TE in my top 6. But not really. That TE pick came at #80 overall – the equivalent of a late 8th-rounder in a 10-team league (or a 7th rounder in 12-man).


League Two – 10 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Position: #4
4. Matt Forte RB1
17. Steven Jackson RB2
24. Reggie Wayne WR1
37. Dwayne Bowe WR2
44. Marshawn Lynch RB3
57. Eddie Royal WR3

Rabbit Rule #2
If the QBs and TEs you’re targeting are gone when your pick comes, don’t panic!

That means a better class of W/R is falling to you. My advice: Just scoop them up and prepare to chuckle quietly as you see what lower-tier dross will be starting for your opponents. Which is what I did here. Then fill in your QB1 before the QB2 run starts. Don’t worry about your TE. You’ll get one eventually, and he’ll be serviceable. For this team, I ended up with Eli Manning and Matt Cassell (rounds 8 and9), and Zach Miller in r19. Not totally optimal (I wanted Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler), but I love this core W/R group. More about my miscalculation at QB later. 


League Three – 10 teams, live draft
Draft Position: #8
8. Steven Jackson RB1
13. Drew Brees QB
28. Kevin Smith RB2
33. Marques Colston WR1
48. Eddie Royal WR2
53. Ray Rice RB3

My third draft, and it certainly started the book. I wanted one of my teams to have a stud QB, I love Brees and he fell to me at 2.3. FWIW, the alternatives were: Peyton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton and Randy Moss. Frankly, any of these would have been fine. But I decided to go QB and then load up at W/R. My TE? Kevin Boss, 18th round. I’ll take my chances with that.
- - - - -
Every league seems idiosyncratic when it comes to the QB position. In general, our leagues tend to overvalue them – and for good reason. Scoring is either 20 (two leagues) or 25 yds/pt (the other one), with subtractions of -0.5 per incompletion and -1 per sack. We do full 6-pt TDs, so QBs are pretty powerful in our leagues. Deliberately so. As a consequence, the top QBs tend to be drafted early. QB2 as well. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, it’s information you can use.

The key to drafting success lies in observation and anticipation.  For instance, if you drafted the third QB at 2.5 (#15), how many more will go before your #26 selection? In some leagues, none. In my leagues, maybe two more. Key knowledge.

For instance, when the TE run starts (early 4th round, typically), how many will go, and how quickly? At least 3, maybe 4. Possibly 5 if someone panics. Add it up. In  preparing for my next pick, I subtract the combined total of QBs and TEs that should disappear from the total number of players going before my next pick. That leaves me a pretty solid idea of who will be filling my RB2, WR2 and W/R slots. Generally, I try to have my next two picks pretty well planned in those first six rounds – though obviously, the best laid plans do often go astray. Still, by the time that pick rolls around, it’s usually pretty obvious whether I should take the RB or the WR.

Rabbit Rule #3
Just target the guys you really want, put them in a priority list, then sit back and wait.

I find it works well to create tiers by draft round, not just position. If I have to wait, say 8 picks and need a WR2, I just eyeball how many non-WRs are likely to go. If there are 5 of those, I just list my top 3 WRs in order of preference and wait. It’s pretty surprising what can fall to you. 

Rabbit Rule #4
Make a list of the guys you really don't want. Don't draft those guys! 

Just trust me on this one. It's critical to the "having fun" part of things. This year, my list included Clinton Portis (just a feeling), Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis. Don't confuse this list with the "non-preferred" guys - guys who are simiply moved down into lower tiers on your draft list. My point is this: If you hate a player, for whatever reason, your fantasy team will be a lot more fun if you're not depending on him. There's no worse feeling than being right about someone sucking this year -- and seeing him stuck on your team.

Two nights from right now, the season starts. By that time, I hope to post my full rosters and starting lineups for Week One. But before I get into that, I hope to post more Rabbit Rules for fantasy drafting…