Off to a rough start this year. Three leagues, two weeks and a 1-5 record. So what's the problem?
None, really. In Week 2 I went 0-3, but all my teams scored pretty well. Sometimes it's just a bad matchup situation. In League 1 (my main team), I ran into an opponent with both Chris and Andre Johnson, who combined for 71 points. League 2, similar issue -- a good, close match that I lost to a couple great performance -- Dallas Clark on MNF and Charles Woodson, with his 23.5 points from the CB position. These things happen. League Three? An even matchup based on Yahoo's (sometimes goofy) projections. I outperformed my projections by ten, but lost by 34 due to big days by Frank Gore and Ronnie Brown. Sigh...
Looking at my teams, it's easy to second-guess. But I'm still pretty pleased with my drafts. Looking back, there were some oddities -- like ending up with Steven Jackson on all three teams. I hadn't especially targeted him, but did have him rated 5th overall. I ended up getting him at #17 overall in League 1 (awesome!), #5 in league 2 (acutally my first draft), and #8 in League 3 (my last draft, and the only live draft). And yeah, I made a couple mistakes along the way (Brandon Marshall seemed like a value at #61 overall...). But nothing serious.
Other commonalities in my teams -- I grabbed Josh Wilson as my first IDP choice in all three leagues. Maybe not the wisest thing to do. It probably pays in the long run to diversify a bit. OTOH, I also have Percy Harvin on all three teams, and wouldn't change those picks for anything. Eddie Royal? On two of my teams. People were cussing me out when I snagged him #57, so it's hard to regret that. He'll come around. (Not sure I can say the same about Brandon...)
So it's been a rough ride through two weeks. I've lost Josh to injury (plus Urlacher in two leagues). Most of my offensive studs have been ineffective (looking at you, Matt Forte!). And I've run up against some of the top performances in my leagues. I've got to believe this will even out -- that I'll be that guy squaking out a close, low-scoring win, that one of my IDPs or TEs will win me a game, and/or that some of my high upside guys will have a big week now and then.
Anyway, I'm confident the Week 3 will see the start of a turnaround. It can't much worse, right?
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Two more leagues, two more lineups
League Two - 14 teams
QB - Jay Cutler
RB - Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant
WR - Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall
Flex - Lee Evans
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Jason Elam
DB - Josh Wilson, D. Rodgers-Cromartie
LB - Brian Urlacher, Keith Rivers
DL - Mario Williams
My opponent is hitting me with Matt Ryan, Matt Forte, Thomas Jones, Greg Jennings, Derrick Mason, Darren Sproles and Kellen Winslow. Yahoo projections show me losing this one 139-131, but I like my chances.
League Three - 10 teams
QB - Drew Brees
RB - Steven Jackson, Ray Rice
WR - Marques Colston, Eddie Royal
Flex - Kevin Smith
TE - Kevin Boss
K - Josh Scobee
DEF - Josh Wilson, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans
My opponent has an offense of Cutler, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Andre Johnson, TO and Jason Witten and Santana Moss at the flex spot. I have a huge edge on paper here, 160-127 per Yahoo projections.
Those Yahoo projections are pretty meaningless. They ignore return yards, and all my leagues award them, both on kicks and turnovers. Plus the defensive projections usually seem semi-random. Still, something to look at until game time -- which is now minutes away!
Looking forward to a fun Sunday. Hope yours is, too.
Let the games begin!
QB - Jay Cutler
RB - Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant
WR - Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall
Flex - Lee Evans
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Jason Elam
DB - Josh Wilson, D. Rodgers-Cromartie
LB - Brian Urlacher, Keith Rivers
DL - Mario Williams
My opponent is hitting me with Matt Ryan, Matt Forte, Thomas Jones, Greg Jennings, Derrick Mason, Darren Sproles and Kellen Winslow. Yahoo projections show me losing this one 139-131, but I like my chances.
League Three - 10 teams
QB - Drew Brees
RB - Steven Jackson, Ray Rice
WR - Marques Colston, Eddie Royal
Flex - Kevin Smith
TE - Kevin Boss
K - Josh Scobee
DEF - Josh Wilson, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans
My opponent has an offense of Cutler, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Andre Johnson, TO and Jason Witten and Santana Moss at the flex spot. I have a huge edge on paper here, 160-127 per Yahoo projections.
Those Yahoo projections are pretty meaningless. They ignore return yards, and all my leagues award them, both on kicks and turnovers. Plus the defensive projections usually seem semi-random. Still, something to look at until game time -- which is now minutes away!
Looking forward to a fun Sunday. Hope yours is, too.
Let the games begin!
SUNDAY!! Week One lineups and errata
OK, here we go. Thursday was a nice warm-up, but now we get to the real deal -- a solid Sunday full of NFL action. Less than an hour to kickoff. All my pool picks are made, all my lineups are set and my laptop is ready for live scoring of my three FF teams while I watch the live action from the couch. Not too much controversy in my lineup selections this week...
League One -- 10 teams
QB - Eli "The Wrong" Manning
WR - Reggie Wayne and Eddie Royal
RB -- Matt Forte and Steven Jackson
Flex -- Fred Jackson
TE -- Zach Miller (OAK)
The only controversy is at the Flex position. I like Fred Jackson over Dwayne Bowe this week. I drafted Jackson for these three weeks and he is getting his shot. Especially with the KC offense likely being without Cassel against the Baltimore D.
My opponent is Berzerker, one of the most knowledgeable sports guys I play with. He seems to have me beaten on paper (based on Yahoo projections) this week. He has the Brady-Moss combo, plus a RB combo of Kevin Smith, Sproles and Mike Bell. He is going with Breaston at WR2 and his TE is Dallas Clark. So in matchup terms, I need a strong day from Manning and I need my superior RB corps to deliver.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
And so it begins...
The Titans and Steelers opened the season with an OT thriller and we are off and running.
Oddly enough across three leagues, neither I nor any of my opponents had anyone starting tonight. Kind of odd considering the amount of talent on the field. but at least there was no real stress in the lineup department. I do have a few on my bench -- Willie Parker in one league; Santonio Holmes and Bo Scaife in another. Kind of a drag to miss out on Santonio's big night, but them's the breaks. At least I didn't sstart FWP. Marques Colston and Eddie Royal will just have to pick up the slack on Sunday...
Fun game to watch; can't wait for Sunday!
Oddly enough across three leagues, neither I nor any of my opponents had anyone starting tonight. Kind of odd considering the amount of talent on the field. but at least there was no real stress in the lineup department. I do have a few on my bench -- Willie Parker in one league; Santonio Holmes and Bo Scaife in another. Kind of a drag to miss out on Santonio's big night, but them's the breaks. At least I didn't sstart FWP. Marques Colston and Eddie Royal will just have to pick up the slack on Sunday...
Fun game to watch; can't wait for Sunday!
Rabbit Rules of Drafting, Part II
I use Rabbit Rules to get me through the critical first six rounds. The idea is to get the core of a playoff-ready team without spending all your free time doing research. Of course, it helps a lot if you’re a pretty hard-core NFL fan. That gives you good familiarity with players, and thus a good idea of where the standard ranking lists might be wrong.
My leagues are all hosted by Yahoo. They are free to play and give plenty of opportunity to customize settings. The site’s player rankings are probably about average compared to the other sites I’ve seen. Quirky in the ranking of rookies and (especially) IDP players, but pretty well aligned with what I see at other sites. Bonus for 2009 is that Yahoo will provide live scoring in realtime at no cost. That’s not an endorsement, but I’ve had no cause to complain.
Rabbit Rule #5
Don’t waste your time researching the obvious.
When you look at rank-ordered lists of player by position across a dozen or so sites, it quickly becomes clear that these lists are remarkably similar. So what’s the point? I just use Yahoo’s lists, which can be sorted by a number of metrics (last year’s stats, 2009 projections, etc.). There is no “right” list until it’s too late. So what should you research?
Rabbit Rule #6
Track the NFL news beyond SportsCenter.
Just the pertinent stuff. There are plenty of sites that provide daily news updates from training camps – which rookies are earning playing time, changes in depth charts, who will get the goal line carries, etc. I do this by using a single site, visited once a day or so, and I don’t even both to write it down anymore. Instead, I just process: upgrade Ray Rice, don’t draft McGahee. Beanie Wells will play, but seems to get hurt a lot. Percy Harvin lining up all over the field and will return kicks. Etc.
This is the closest thing to “work” I do in building my teams. But frankly, I love it – a nice little break from my work-at-home lifestyle. And it makes it easy to build a customized draft list. Remember the previous rules:
-Target the guys you really want.
-Know which guys you want to avoid.
Rabbit Rule #7
Accentuate the positive – don’t worry about mistakes.
Everyone makes them. I made a tragic error in League Two this year. There I was, 5 W/R guys in my pocket. My turn comes up in r6 and I still need a QB. But at that point, all my targeted guys were gone. In a 10-man league, 9 QBs had gone in the first 4 rounds; none in r5. And in my view, any of the next few guys on my QB list (Ryan, Palmer, Schaub), would be equally fine. So, following my own advice (Rabbit Rule #2), I grabbed my WR3 (selecting Eddie Royal over Anthony Gonzalez) and resolved to take my QB in r7.
But that wasn’t my mistake. That came in r7 when - despite the fact that Carson Palmer had been taken as someone’s QB2 - I did not draft my guy! Big mistake. Instead, I decided to take the first IDP player of the draft – hoping to start a position run while getting the guy I coveted (Josh Wilson, DB SEA). I figured, between breaking the IDP cherry, the last really decent RBs, WRs and TEs sitting there, and the fact that everyone else had their QB, I could wait another round and still get one of my guys.
Wrong!
Before my pick in r8, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, and Big Ben all became backups. That left me with the absolute last acceptable starter – Eli Manning. Not bad, I grant you. But not my guy. And all because I got a little greedy.
What happened? I had a conflict in Rabbit Rule #3 – target the guys you really want, prioritize and see what falls to you. Problem was, I had two guys I really wanted – Matt Ryan and Josh Wilson. And I had failed to coordinate my priorities between IDP and QB. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that the QB is far more important. But I managed to convince myself otherwise, and paid the price. Good thing I’m a big believer in Rabbit Rule #7.
While I didn’t get my preferred QB, I did get the highest-scoring defender available. We count return yards in our league, and Josh Wilson is both a fine CB and an excellent KR. He totaled 196.15 fantasy points in 2008, while the next-best DB (Gibril Wilson) has 141.50. That’s a 55-point gap – well over 3pts/week better than the #2 guy. And Seattle had confirmed that he would be returning kicks again. And Eli Manning is still a 3200-yd passer who threw for 21 TDs last year. Not chopped liver. Then in r9, I added Matt Cassel. All is well.
Rabbit Rule #8
Don’t waste early draft picks on one-week players.
If the others in League Two knew this rule, I would have Matt Ryan. If you draft Peyton Manning, you won’t be benching him except for the bye week. So if you’re taking your QB2 in 7th round, that’s a wasted pick. So when I look back on that, there’s only one possible explanation: That guy must have really wanted Josh Wilson. So when he wasn’t there, he tried to continue the QB2 run, possibly as retribution.
Looking back on it, I like that Josh Wilson pick. A lot. The real mistake was probably in round 6, when I could have my choice of Moore or Carson Palmer. But is either significantly better than Eli Manning or Matt Cassel in 2009? It’s anybody’s guess.
And that’s the beauty of the “competitive but fun” approach.
Rabbit Rule #9
You can’t have too many RBs and WRs.
Where most teams have a solid set of backups, I’m a big believer in loading on the more injury-prone positions – RB and WR. Typically, I don’t bother with backups for TE or the IDP slots. There’s a simple reason for this: The waiver wire is your friend. Any backup you pick after the 15th round or so is unlikely to be any better.
We have big rosters. In League Two, we use the standard starting set of seven on offense (QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, W/R, TE), a Kicker, and five IDP players (DB1, DB2, LB1, LB2, DL1). So that’s 13 starters. To that we add 10 Bench players. My 23-man roster includes: 3-QB, 6-RB, 7-WR, 1-TE, 1-K, and 5-IDP. But what about Bye weeks, you ask?
Rabbit Rule #10
Don’t stress over Bye weeks.
Keep track of them, sure. Not having the same Bye week as your QB1 is a great tiebreaker when choosing your QB2, for example. And you don’t want your top three RBs all taking the same week off. But if you’re packing 6 or 7 RBs, you can’t really go wrong. Remember: ultimately, you will probably be turning over at least a quarter of your roster during the season. If you have to make a tough call on dropping a kicker or defender, it can only mean that you’ve got a deep, strong roster – good for you! My philosophy is to fold bye week replacements into that process, because you’ll know a lot more about the value of marginal players once the season starts.
-----
So that’s how I draft. I’m sure it’s not for everyone. But it seems to work for me. It helps to play with the same groups every year. You learn tendencies, both of individuals and the league overall, which can really help when you’re torn between the best defender and the #11 QB. Or if you’re wondering whether Randy Moss will drop to you or how long Devin Hester might last in a league with 4 or 5 Bears fans.
Conventional wisdom says that you should check your fandom at the door if you want to succeed at fantasy football. And there’s some truth in that. But it’s my belief that it sucks some of the fun out of the game. And that’s not acceptable. I’m a Chicago fan, and it’s a pretty good bet that I’ll have a Bear or two on my team. (Any more puts too many eggs in one basket.) And that’s enough, even if it’s just Robbie Gould kicking or Earl Bennett at the end of the bench.
My point is simple: It’s entirely possible to succeed at fantasy football without investing a lot of time and money. All you need is your natural NFL fandom and a good grasp of the Rabbit Rules. The 2009 NFL and fantasy football season starts tonight. May your roster stay healthy and your matchups be favorable. Just remember...
Rabbit’s Golden Rule
Have some fun, and kick some ass.
My leagues are all hosted by Yahoo. They are free to play and give plenty of opportunity to customize settings. The site’s player rankings are probably about average compared to the other sites I’ve seen. Quirky in the ranking of rookies and (especially) IDP players, but pretty well aligned with what I see at other sites. Bonus for 2009 is that Yahoo will provide live scoring in realtime at no cost. That’s not an endorsement, but I’ve had no cause to complain.
Rabbit Rule #5
Don’t waste your time researching the obvious.
When you look at rank-ordered lists of player by position across a dozen or so sites, it quickly becomes clear that these lists are remarkably similar. So what’s the point? I just use Yahoo’s lists, which can be sorted by a number of metrics (last year’s stats, 2009 projections, etc.). There is no “right” list until it’s too late. So what should you research?
Rabbit Rule #6
Track the NFL news beyond SportsCenter.
Just the pertinent stuff. There are plenty of sites that provide daily news updates from training camps – which rookies are earning playing time, changes in depth charts, who will get the goal line carries, etc. I do this by using a single site, visited once a day or so, and I don’t even both to write it down anymore. Instead, I just process: upgrade Ray Rice, don’t draft McGahee. Beanie Wells will play, but seems to get hurt a lot. Percy Harvin lining up all over the field and will return kicks. Etc.
This is the closest thing to “work” I do in building my teams. But frankly, I love it – a nice little break from my work-at-home lifestyle. And it makes it easy to build a customized draft list. Remember the previous rules:
-Target the guys you really want.
-Know which guys you want to avoid.
Rabbit Rule #7
Accentuate the positive – don’t worry about mistakes.
Everyone makes them. I made a tragic error in League Two this year. There I was, 5 W/R guys in my pocket. My turn comes up in r6 and I still need a QB. But at that point, all my targeted guys were gone. In a 10-man league, 9 QBs had gone in the first 4 rounds; none in r5. And in my view, any of the next few guys on my QB list (Ryan, Palmer, Schaub), would be equally fine. So, following my own advice (Rabbit Rule #2), I grabbed my WR3 (selecting Eddie Royal over Anthony Gonzalez) and resolved to take my QB in r7.
But that wasn’t my mistake. That came in r7 when - despite the fact that Carson Palmer had been taken as someone’s QB2 - I did not draft my guy! Big mistake. Instead, I decided to take the first IDP player of the draft – hoping to start a position run while getting the guy I coveted (Josh Wilson, DB SEA). I figured, between breaking the IDP cherry, the last really decent RBs, WRs and TEs sitting there, and the fact that everyone else had their QB, I could wait another round and still get one of my guys.
Wrong!
Before my pick in r8, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, and Big Ben all became backups. That left me with the absolute last acceptable starter – Eli Manning. Not bad, I grant you. But not my guy. And all because I got a little greedy.
What happened? I had a conflict in Rabbit Rule #3 – target the guys you really want, prioritize and see what falls to you. Problem was, I had two guys I really wanted – Matt Ryan and Josh Wilson. And I had failed to coordinate my priorities between IDP and QB. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that the QB is far more important. But I managed to convince myself otherwise, and paid the price. Good thing I’m a big believer in Rabbit Rule #7.
While I didn’t get my preferred QB, I did get the highest-scoring defender available. We count return yards in our league, and Josh Wilson is both a fine CB and an excellent KR. He totaled 196.15 fantasy points in 2008, while the next-best DB (Gibril Wilson) has 141.50. That’s a 55-point gap – well over 3pts/week better than the #2 guy. And Seattle had confirmed that he would be returning kicks again. And Eli Manning is still a 3200-yd passer who threw for 21 TDs last year. Not chopped liver. Then in r9, I added Matt Cassel. All is well.
Rabbit Rule #8
Don’t waste early draft picks on one-week players.
If the others in League Two knew this rule, I would have Matt Ryan. If you draft Peyton Manning, you won’t be benching him except for the bye week. So if you’re taking your QB2 in 7th round, that’s a wasted pick. So when I look back on that, there’s only one possible explanation: That guy must have really wanted Josh Wilson. So when he wasn’t there, he tried to continue the QB2 run, possibly as retribution.
Looking back on it, I like that Josh Wilson pick. A lot. The real mistake was probably in round 6, when I could have my choice of Moore or Carson Palmer. But is either significantly better than Eli Manning or Matt Cassel in 2009? It’s anybody’s guess.
And that’s the beauty of the “competitive but fun” approach.
Rabbit Rule #9
You can’t have too many RBs and WRs.
Where most teams have a solid set of backups, I’m a big believer in loading on the more injury-prone positions – RB and WR. Typically, I don’t bother with backups for TE or the IDP slots. There’s a simple reason for this: The waiver wire is your friend. Any backup you pick after the 15th round or so is unlikely to be any better.
We have big rosters. In League Two, we use the standard starting set of seven on offense (QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, W/R, TE), a Kicker, and five IDP players (DB1, DB2, LB1, LB2, DL1). So that’s 13 starters. To that we add 10 Bench players. My 23-man roster includes: 3-QB, 6-RB, 7-WR, 1-TE, 1-K, and 5-IDP. But what about Bye weeks, you ask?
Rabbit Rule #10
Don’t stress over Bye weeks.
Keep track of them, sure. Not having the same Bye week as your QB1 is a great tiebreaker when choosing your QB2, for example. And you don’t want your top three RBs all taking the same week off. But if you’re packing 6 or 7 RBs, you can’t really go wrong. Remember: ultimately, you will probably be turning over at least a quarter of your roster during the season. If you have to make a tough call on dropping a kicker or defender, it can only mean that you’ve got a deep, strong roster – good for you! My philosophy is to fold bye week replacements into that process, because you’ll know a lot more about the value of marginal players once the season starts.
-----
So that’s how I draft. I’m sure it’s not for everyone. But it seems to work for me. It helps to play with the same groups every year. You learn tendencies, both of individuals and the league overall, which can really help when you’re torn between the best defender and the #11 QB. Or if you’re wondering whether Randy Moss will drop to you or how long Devin Hester might last in a league with 4 or 5 Bears fans.
Conventional wisdom says that you should check your fandom at the door if you want to succeed at fantasy football. And there’s some truth in that. But it’s my belief that it sucks some of the fun out of the game. And that’s not acceptable. I’m a Chicago fan, and it’s a pretty good bet that I’ll have a Bear or two on my team. (Any more puts too many eggs in one basket.) And that’s enough, even if it’s just Robbie Gould kicking or Earl Bennett at the end of the bench.
My point is simple: It’s entirely possible to succeed at fantasy football without investing a lot of time and money. All you need is your natural NFL fandom and a good grasp of the Rabbit Rules. The 2009 NFL and fantasy football season starts tonight. May your roster stay healthy and your matchups be favorable. Just remember...
Rabbit’s Golden Rule
Have some fun, and kick some ass.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Rabbit Rules - Drafting My 2009 Teams
I think it’s fair to say that the core of a fantasy football team is determined in the first six rounds of the draft. Once those top 60+ guys are gone, it becomes more of a crapshoot - finding the right role players to get production from fringe positions and spotting the backups most likely to contribute.
There are two nasty temptations in the early rounds of the draft: the top rock stars who play QB and TE. Take one and you’ve got an every-week stud on your hands - which is great. But take one of each and you risk being seriously deficient in the key WR/RB skill positions. So I have a rule of thumb when drafting:
Rabbit Rule #1
At least 5 of your first 6 picks (if not all of them!) should be RBs and WRs.
If you’ve got to have a Brady/Brees/Manning, that’s fine. But accept the fact that you’ll be settling for a tier-two TE in the bargain. Embrace it! OTOH, if your opponents are busy snapping up the top QBs, that means that a better quality of W/R will be falling to you. If you have your eye on a Gates/Witten/Gonzo, give him a firm draft slot and, if he falls to you, snatch him up without hesitation.
So let’s take a look at the top 6 picks that form the core of my 2009 teams.
League One – 14 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Postion: #5
5. Steven Jackson RB1
24. Calvin Johnson WR1
33. Ryan Grant RB2
52. Jay Cutler QB
61. Brandon Marshall WR2
80. Greg Olsen TE
I’m pretty happy with this team. Yes, it appears I disobeyed Rabbit Rule #1, taking both a QB and TE in my top 6. But not really. That TE pick came at #80 overall – the equivalent of a late 8th-rounder in a 10-team league (or a 7th rounder in 12-man).
League Two – 10 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Position: #4
4. Matt Forte RB1
17. Steven Jackson RB2
24. Reggie Wayne WR1
37. Dwayne Bowe WR2
44. Marshawn Lynch RB3
57. Eddie Royal WR3
Rabbit Rule #2
If the QBs and TEs you’re targeting are gone when your pick comes, don’t panic!
That means a better class of W/R is falling to you. My advice: Just scoop them up and prepare to chuckle quietly as you see what lower-tier dross will be starting for your opponents. Which is what I did here. Then fill in your QB1 before the QB2 run starts. Don’t worry about your TE. You’ll get one eventually, and he’ll be serviceable. For this team, I ended up with Eli Manning and Matt Cassell (rounds 8 and9), and Zach Miller in r19. Not totally optimal (I wanted Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler), but I love this core W/R group. More about my miscalculation at QB later.
League Three – 10 teams, live draft
Draft Position: #8
8. Steven Jackson RB1
13. Drew Brees QB
28. Kevin Smith RB2
33. Marques Colston WR1
48. Eddie Royal WR2
53. Ray Rice RB3
My third draft, and it certainly started the book. I wanted one of my teams to have a stud QB, I love Brees and he fell to me at 2.3. FWIW, the alternatives were: Peyton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton and Randy Moss. Frankly, any of these would have been fine. But I decided to go QB and then load up at W/R. My TE? Kevin Boss, 18th round. I’ll take my chances with that.
- - - - -
Every league seems idiosyncratic when it comes to the QB position. In general, our leagues tend to overvalue them – and for good reason. Scoring is either 20 (two leagues) or 25 yds/pt (the other one), with subtractions of -0.5 per incompletion and -1 per sack. We do full 6-pt TDs, so QBs are pretty powerful in our leagues. Deliberately so. As a consequence, the top QBs tend to be drafted early. QB2 as well. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, it’s information you can use.
The key to drafting success lies in observation and anticipation. For instance, if you drafted the third QB at 2.5 (#15), how many more will go before your #26 selection? In some leagues, none. In my leagues, maybe two more. Key knowledge.
For instance, when the TE run starts (early 4th round, typically), how many will go, and how quickly? At least 3, maybe 4. Possibly 5 if someone panics. Add it up. In preparing for my next pick, I subtract the combined total of QBs and TEs that should disappear from the total number of players going before my next pick. That leaves me a pretty solid idea of who will be filling my RB2, WR2 and W/R slots. Generally, I try to have my next two picks pretty well planned in those first six rounds – though obviously, the best laid plans do often go astray. Still, by the time that pick rolls around, it’s usually pretty obvious whether I should take the RB or the WR.
Rabbit Rule #3
Just target the guys you really want, put them in a priority list, then sit back and wait.
I find it works well to create tiers by draft round, not just position. If I have to wait, say 8 picks and need a WR2, I just eyeball how many non-WRs are likely to go. If there are 5 of those, I just list my top 3 WRs in order of preference and wait. It’s pretty surprising what can fall to you.
Rabbit Rule #4
Make a list of the guys you really don't want. Don't draft those guys!
Just trust me on this one. It's critical to the "having fun" part of things. This year, my list included Clinton Portis (just a feeling), Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis. Don't confuse this list with the "non-preferred" guys - guys who are simiply moved down into lower tiers on your draft list. My point is this: If you hate a player, for whatever reason, your fantasy team will be a lot more fun if you're not depending on him. There's no worse feeling than being right about someone sucking this year -- and seeing him stuck on your team.
Two nights from right now, the season starts. By that time, I hope to post my full rosters and starting lineups for Week One. But before I get into that, I hope to post more Rabbit Rules for fantasy drafting…
There are two nasty temptations in the early rounds of the draft: the top rock stars who play QB and TE. Take one and you’ve got an every-week stud on your hands - which is great. But take one of each and you risk being seriously deficient in the key WR/RB skill positions. So I have a rule of thumb when drafting:
Rabbit Rule #1
At least 5 of your first 6 picks (if not all of them!) should be RBs and WRs.
If you’ve got to have a Brady/Brees/Manning, that’s fine. But accept the fact that you’ll be settling for a tier-two TE in the bargain. Embrace it! OTOH, if your opponents are busy snapping up the top QBs, that means that a better quality of W/R will be falling to you. If you have your eye on a Gates/Witten/Gonzo, give him a firm draft slot and, if he falls to you, snatch him up without hesitation.
So let’s take a look at the top 6 picks that form the core of my 2009 teams.
League One – 14 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Postion: #5
5. Steven Jackson RB1
24. Calvin Johnson WR1
33. Ryan Grant RB2
52. Jay Cutler QB
61. Brandon Marshall WR2
80. Greg Olsen TE
I’m pretty happy with this team. Yes, it appears I disobeyed Rabbit Rule #1, taking both a QB and TE in my top 6. But not really. That TE pick came at #80 overall – the equivalent of a late 8th-rounder in a 10-team league (or a 7th rounder in 12-man).
League Two – 10 teams, “slow draft”
Draft Position: #4
4. Matt Forte RB1
17. Steven Jackson RB2
24. Reggie Wayne WR1
37. Dwayne Bowe WR2
44. Marshawn Lynch RB3
57. Eddie Royal WR3
Rabbit Rule #2
If the QBs and TEs you’re targeting are gone when your pick comes, don’t panic!
That means a better class of W/R is falling to you. My advice: Just scoop them up and prepare to chuckle quietly as you see what lower-tier dross will be starting for your opponents. Which is what I did here. Then fill in your QB1 before the QB2 run starts. Don’t worry about your TE. You’ll get one eventually, and he’ll be serviceable. For this team, I ended up with Eli Manning and Matt Cassell (rounds 8 and9), and Zach Miller in r19. Not totally optimal (I wanted Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler), but I love this core W/R group. More about my miscalculation at QB later.
League Three – 10 teams, live draft
Draft Position: #8
8. Steven Jackson RB1
13. Drew Brees QB
28. Kevin Smith RB2
33. Marques Colston WR1
48. Eddie Royal WR2
53. Ray Rice RB3
My third draft, and it certainly started the book. I wanted one of my teams to have a stud QB, I love Brees and he fell to me at 2.3. FWIW, the alternatives were: Peyton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton and Randy Moss. Frankly, any of these would have been fine. But I decided to go QB and then load up at W/R. My TE? Kevin Boss, 18th round. I’ll take my chances with that.
- - - - -
Every league seems idiosyncratic when it comes to the QB position. In general, our leagues tend to overvalue them – and for good reason. Scoring is either 20 (two leagues) or 25 yds/pt (the other one), with subtractions of -0.5 per incompletion and -1 per sack. We do full 6-pt TDs, so QBs are pretty powerful in our leagues. Deliberately so. As a consequence, the top QBs tend to be drafted early. QB2 as well. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, it’s information you can use.
The key to drafting success lies in observation and anticipation. For instance, if you drafted the third QB at 2.5 (#15), how many more will go before your #26 selection? In some leagues, none. In my leagues, maybe two more. Key knowledge.
For instance, when the TE run starts (early 4th round, typically), how many will go, and how quickly? At least 3, maybe 4. Possibly 5 if someone panics. Add it up. In preparing for my next pick, I subtract the combined total of QBs and TEs that should disappear from the total number of players going before my next pick. That leaves me a pretty solid idea of who will be filling my RB2, WR2 and W/R slots. Generally, I try to have my next two picks pretty well planned in those first six rounds – though obviously, the best laid plans do often go astray. Still, by the time that pick rolls around, it’s usually pretty obvious whether I should take the RB or the WR.
Rabbit Rule #3
Just target the guys you really want, put them in a priority list, then sit back and wait.
I find it works well to create tiers by draft round, not just position. If I have to wait, say 8 picks and need a WR2, I just eyeball how many non-WRs are likely to go. If there are 5 of those, I just list my top 3 WRs in order of preference and wait. It’s pretty surprising what can fall to you.
Rabbit Rule #4
Make a list of the guys you really don't want. Don't draft those guys!
Just trust me on this one. It's critical to the "having fun" part of things. This year, my list included Clinton Portis (just a feeling), Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis. Don't confuse this list with the "non-preferred" guys - guys who are simiply moved down into lower tiers on your draft list. My point is this: If you hate a player, for whatever reason, your fantasy team will be a lot more fun if you're not depending on him. There's no worse feeling than being right about someone sucking this year -- and seeing him stuck on your team.
Two nights from right now, the season starts. By that time, I hope to post my full rosters and starting lineups for Week One. But before I get into that, I hope to post more Rabbit Rules for fantasy drafting…
Monday, September 7, 2009
Post-Draft Afterglow
Well, my drafts are complete. Three leagues, and I plan to make the playoffs in all of them again this year. Of course, nothing is guaranteed and there are always surprises. Kurt Warner started out 2008 as a backup and ended up with some very gaudy stats and a trip to the Super Bowl. Each season carries similar surprises. Inevitably, some FF teams that look great today will go down the tubes through injuries and other errata that, come December, will make us look back and wonder, “What was I thinking?”
But right now, it’s Labor Day weekend. A time when we can all love our drafts, chortle over our own steals and our opponents’ drafting miscues. Ah, how I savor this time – the last week before the NFL season!
My Leagues
All three of my leagues are via Yahoo. None use totally standard settings, with a little more emphasis on the QB position and a bit less on the RBs. Also notable is the fact that all return yards count (20yd/pt), which drastically changes the value of certain DBs (J. Wilson, Blackmon) and otherwise marginal offensive players (Ginn, Hester, et al). We have pretty deep benches (22-man rosters typical).
League One – 14 teams, PPR, 5-man IDP, “slow draft”
League Two – 10 teams, PPR, 5-man IDP, “slow draft”
League Three – 10 teams, PPR, 3-man IDP, live draft
I’m kind of excited about League One. With 14 teams, offensive firepower will obviously be at a premium. But what’s really great is that this will be the first league I’ve ever played in with a balanced schedule – a 13-week season and 3-week playoffs. Level playing field, yay! No more losers whining about schedule luck, yay!
[Slight digression] Yes, I play all-IDP, all the time. I’ve never understood the attraction of the D/ST concept. The way it’s implemented, there is no reward for return yards – only turnovers, sacks and TDs. Significant FF rewards for a great defensive game are rare enough in today’s NFL, and even that can be ruined by the offense giving up a pick-6. Crazy.
The Slow Draft
The “slow draft” is a long-term offline draft done through a forum website where the managers hang out. I have no idea how common the slow draft concept is. But the two forum sites I hang out at both do their drafts that way.
Here’s how it works: The draft order (typical serpentine) is established and each manager goes “on the clock” in turn, making one selection on a bulletin board thread and notifying the next in line. These drafts generally run roughly 8am to 10pm daily, with clock time ranging from two to four hours before a BAPAY (Best Available Player At Yahoo) is assigned.
Depending on how things are going, the clock may or may not run on weekends. People who have timing issues (Europeans, work-blocked, family commitments, etc.) are encouraged to leave a priority list for upcoming picks, typically sent as a personal message to another manager.
Yes, it’s a slow process, but it allows everyone to give due consideration to their picks without the need to study up on the entire league in the process. And it provides a lot of insight for those of us participating in live drafts immediately prior to the season.
The slow draft process requires committed managers. It takes about two weeks (sometimes longer) to complete, so we start early – around the time of the NFL Hall of Fame game (August 10). Some find it frustrating, often waiting a day or more between picks. But I see that as an advantage, filling a couple weeks of preseason with positive NFL/FF activity.
Over the past few years, I’ve developed some theories and principles of solid drafting that, time permitting, I will share with the class.
But right now, it’s Labor Day weekend. A time when we can all love our drafts, chortle over our own steals and our opponents’ drafting miscues. Ah, how I savor this time – the last week before the NFL season!
My Leagues
All three of my leagues are via Yahoo. None use totally standard settings, with a little more emphasis on the QB position and a bit less on the RBs. Also notable is the fact that all return yards count (20yd/pt), which drastically changes the value of certain DBs (J. Wilson, Blackmon) and otherwise marginal offensive players (Ginn, Hester, et al). We have pretty deep benches (22-man rosters typical).
League One – 14 teams, PPR, 5-man IDP, “slow draft”
League Two – 10 teams, PPR, 5-man IDP, “slow draft”
League Three – 10 teams, PPR, 3-man IDP, live draft
I’m kind of excited about League One. With 14 teams, offensive firepower will obviously be at a premium. But what’s really great is that this will be the first league I’ve ever played in with a balanced schedule – a 13-week season and 3-week playoffs. Level playing field, yay! No more losers whining about schedule luck, yay!
[Slight digression] Yes, I play all-IDP, all the time. I’ve never understood the attraction of the D/ST concept. The way it’s implemented, there is no reward for return yards – only turnovers, sacks and TDs. Significant FF rewards for a great defensive game are rare enough in today’s NFL, and even that can be ruined by the offense giving up a pick-6. Crazy.
The Slow Draft
The “slow draft” is a long-term offline draft done through a forum website where the managers hang out. I have no idea how common the slow draft concept is. But the two forum sites I hang out at both do their drafts that way.
Here’s how it works: The draft order (typical serpentine) is established and each manager goes “on the clock” in turn, making one selection on a bulletin board thread and notifying the next in line. These drafts generally run roughly 8am to 10pm daily, with clock time ranging from two to four hours before a BAPAY (Best Available Player At Yahoo) is assigned.
Depending on how things are going, the clock may or may not run on weekends. People who have timing issues (Europeans, work-blocked, family commitments, etc.) are encouraged to leave a priority list for upcoming picks, typically sent as a personal message to another manager.
Yes, it’s a slow process, but it allows everyone to give due consideration to their picks without the need to study up on the entire league in the process. And it provides a lot of insight for those of us participating in live drafts immediately prior to the season.
The slow draft process requires committed managers. It takes about two weeks (sometimes longer) to complete, so we start early – around the time of the NFL Hall of Fame game (August 10). Some find it frustrating, often waiting a day or more between picks. But I see that as an advantage, filling a couple weeks of preseason with positive NFL/FF activity.
Over the past few years, I’ve developed some theories and principles of solid drafting that, time permitting, I will share with the class.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
First and Ten
Hi. I'm Jrabbit. This blog will explore all aspects of playing fantasy football. No, I take that back.This blog will explore all aspects of the way I play fantasy football. Which is: competitively but for fun.
What, you don’t think the world needs another blog on fantasy football? Well, you’re right. But that’s not gonna stop me. After all, if blogs were only written on the basis of need, there would be far fewer of them cluttering up the Interwebs.
I've decided to blog as a way to relax. And because, IMNSHO, I have a little something to offer. Write what you know they say. And I know I've been pretty successful in FF world. I don't play for money, and there are no office politics involved. It's just something I enjoy immensely.
Resume: I've played in a total of 10 leagues, all at Yahoo, and have made the playoffs eight times. Last year, I won all three leagues I played in. In 2007, I was two-for-two. In fact, 2006 was the last time any of my teams missed the playoffs. And I've never had a year in which I didn't make the playoffs in at least one league.
So I'm starting to think, this may not be random chance. Maybe I'm onto something here. Of course, it may be the one area in life where I'm lucky. Or that I'm some sort of freaking Genius of Perception. But it's more likely that my results are the residue of some combination of knowledge, planning and the ability to read the inevitably changin landscapes of the draft and season.
Of course, a good draft does not ensure a good season. Any team that is not actively managed is pretty much doomed to failure. You've got to have the right guys in the lineup at the right times - taking advantage of good matchups, neutralizing your opponent's key weapon, having that key rookie stashed on your roster for the day he becomes a starter in Week 9...
It's not hard to get this stuff right. And it really doesn't take that much time or effort. I have managed to have some success without dedicating my life to NFL statistics, poring over bye week schedules and potential playoff-week match-ups, or -- most importantly -- paying some self-promoting premium website to tell me what to do. don't get me wrong -- I have my go-to websites, and I visit them regularly. But they are FREE. As nature intended.
Hey, I'm sure a lot of those sites are great. But it's not for me.
I mean, I'm as competitive as the next guy (probably moreso). And it sure would be nice to get a text message alerting me to pick up BenJarvis Green-Ellis (love that name!) before my competition does. But I won't do it. Sorry, CleverFFname.com. If I'm playing for fun -- and I am -- why would I dilute my sense of accomplishment (and my bank account!) by paying for advice? Makes no sense.
But I digress. (Get used to it.)
Rabbit Droppings will basically be my personal observations and musings on fantasy football in my little part of the world. I hope to be a little entertaining and, hopefully, a little insightful.
I'll talk about the leagues I play in. we'll look at league structure, a little history, our settings, etc. Maybe we'll do a little draft analysis. And as the season rolls on, we'll follow my three teams and I'll face the music. We'll see if this season brings me more success, or if my hubris in starting a "dig me" blog is really just an irresistible invitation to the FF gods to give me my comeuppance.
Should be fun. Comments welcome.
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